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قديم 11-05-2012, 07:40 PM
nigery غير متواجد حالياً
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Apr 2012
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nigery is on a distinguished road
افتراضي Sanusi’s: Naira Goes From Worst To Best As Gambit Pays Off

The Nigerian Naira has gone From being one of the world’s Worst performing currency in 2011 to Africa’s second- Best performer year to date, as the decision by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to tighten liquidity and defend the currency Pays off.

In October 2011 the Naira was the second-worst performer worldwide after Mongolia’s tugrik.

Barely a year later the Naira is up 3.4 percent versus the dollar, beating the South African Rand which is down 7 percent, Kenyan Shilling down 0.4 percent and the Ghanaian Cedi down 15.3 percent in 2012.
The Naira finished up 0.1 percent in October closing at N157.06 a dollar as of 4:48 p.m. in Lagos, last Wednesday.

“The NGN has been well supported in the interbank market this year,” Samir Gadio, an emerging markets strategist at Standard Bank London said, in an email response to questions.
“As a result, the spread between the interbank and effective CBN rates has remained marginal (if not negative at times.”

Key CBN policy decisions under Sanusi have aided Naira strength in 2012.
The CBN hiked its benchmark interest rate by 5.75 percent last year to a record 12 percent and has kept it unchanged so far in 2012, helping to attract capital inflows seeking to buy high yielding government securities.
The regulator also drew heavily on dollar reserves to defend the currency and avoid Naira depreciation.

The reserves which finished flat in 2011 despite elevated oil prices are up 29.4 percent in 2012 to $42.6 billion according to latest CBN data, reflecting Naira strength.
The regulator increased reserve requirements for banks to 12 percent of assets From 8 percent and limited access to twice-a-week foreign-exchange auctions to stop dealers From buying foreign currency using Naira purchased From the central bank at a discount.

Sanusi last year also set aside the minimum one year hold period for Government bonds by foreign investors, culminating in the October 1, 2012 addition of Nigerian bonds to JP Morgan’s emerging market index (GBI-EM) and an estimated $1.5 billion of inflows.

Analysts say that for frontier markets such as Nigeria, the currency performance is a key indicator of macroeconomic stability.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Nigerian dollar bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries have narrowed this year, as confidence in the Naira and Nigeria’s macro story grows.
The strong Naira is also a positive for the equity and bond markets as it moderates inflation which erodes capital gains.

Sanusi last year bucked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) advice on the local currency.
The Naira is overvalued and more exchange rate flexibility is needed to prevent the CBN From running down foreign currency reserves to fix the rate, the Washington-based IMF said in February 2011.

Sanusi lowered the Naira band to N155 per dollar From N150 in November 2011 but stopped short of leaving the currency entirely up to market forces.
The partial removal of fuel subsidy which the CBN supported has also been a positive for the Naira and foreign reserves accretion, as well as a favorable global risk sentiment and elevated oil prices.

Looking at the CBN’s ability to sustain Naira strength going forward, the Economic intelligence unit (EIU) said last week that it expects the currency to hit N174 per $1 in 2017, equivalent to an annual average depreciation of 2 percent.
“Given robust inflation, this represents a marked real appreciation,” EIU said.

According to Gadio, in 2013 risks to Naira stability are chiefly on the fiscal side, particularly From profligate legislators.
“The risk to our core USD/NGN stability view comes From the exchange rate assumption of 160 in the 2013 budget.”, he said.


Sanusi’s: Naira Goes From Worst To Best As Gambit Pays Off
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